Summary: Mongolia Between Friendly Neighbors

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Summary:  Mongolia Between Friendly Neighbors

Summary:  Mongolia Between Friendly Neighbors

  • As the scenario name makes clear, Mongolia finds itself in generally favorable relations with both Russia and China.  These two countries are also generally well integrated into the global market economy and have become reasonably stable democracies.  Northeast China, in particular, is booming.  Mongolia is viewed as relatively stable politically and economically, though corruption in the UB ruling elite is increasingly a cause for concern.
  • The Mongolian economy is relatively strong in favored regions, particularly in UB and those aimags integrated into the new “Northeast Asian Economic Alliance” and the Tumen Program.  However, Mongolia is still primarily a supplier of raw materials – and thus vulnerable to outside demand – and the economy outside of these favored regions is still weak.  Mongolia’s overall GDP has not witnessed significant real growth since 2000.
  • Mongolia’s economic development benefited from significant foreign investment and development aid, particularly Chinese.  This has greatly improved the communication and transportation infrastructure, and modernized herding, agriculture and food processing.  However, Mongolia has not developed a strong non-resource-based economy nor a great many value-adding capacities.  Some Mongols wonder whether their neighbors are content to see them as  merely providers of raw materials – Russia and China’s own “Canada”.
  • Gochoo and Bumaa have moved to the Dornod aimag in the east to take advantage of economic opportunities.  They are both working with livestock, he is employed as a herder, she as a hide washer, for a Korean-Chinese venture. Their daughter works in a tourist lodge. They and their children are reasonably well off compared to compatriots in rural districts to the west and south, but they are falling economically behind the relatively well-to-do dwellers of UB.
  • Mongolia’s environment continues to degrade, in part from global factors (global warming), in part due to the pressures of a growing population and economy (water scarcity, air pollution) and in part due to poor practices and planning (overgrazing, mining effects).
 
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